According to the forecast, rainfall will diminish in Chennai and Bengaluru, while in Srinagar, the rain will cause temperatures to drop.

According to the latest forecast, once the monsoon kicks into gear over the western coast, the amount of convective rain that falls inland will drastically reduce. This has been observed to be the case in the southern peninsula.

The North East area of India has continued to get strong monsoon rains over the last week. While there has been a general decrease in the number of heavy rainfall events, the region is still inundated as a result of the excessive rainfall that occurred earlier in June.

While this is happening, June temperature records are falling in South India, despite the fact that the monsoon is still going strong in the peninsula. By recording a total of 235.4 millimetres of rainfall for the month of June as of today, Bengaluru Airport has set a new all-time record for the wettest June. The previous record was set in June of 1996 with 231.8 millimetres.

In a similar vein, the rains in Chennai have stepped up significantly over the past week, making it the most historically significant June rainfall in the past thirty years.

Rainfall that was particularly heavy in certain areas of Chennai and Tamil Nadu over the course of three days, finishing around 8:30 am on June 22:

Ambattur — 194mm
KK Nagar — 189mm
Taramani — 185mm
Red Hills: 173 millimetres
167 millimetres for the Anna University
Avadi — 167mm
West Tambaram — 166mm
Mylapore — 163mm
Villivakkam — 163mm
Perambur — 161mm
Anna Uty ARG — 159mm
Nungabakkam — 158mm

Even though a powerful monsoonal flow is being witnessed in certain locations of the West coast of India, Mumbai and the areas next to it are just seeing intermittent mild to moderate rain showers. The Santacruz Observatory recorded 36 millimetres of rainfall up until 8:30 in the morning on June 25; however, Colaba only saw very light rains of 2 millimetres on Saturday morning. This contrast defines the scattered nature of the monsoon rains that have fallen so far in this season, which has led to a lack of water in the region. Due to low rainfall totals in the catchment area lakes during the month of June, the BMC has declared a ten percent reduction in water usage, which will go into effect as soon as the present water stock levels fall below ten percent.

Earlier in the week, a powerful Western Disturbance was responsible for precipitation totals that were significantly greater than average in the Himalayas, as well as snowfall in the highest elevations of Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.

The Plains of North West, including the Thar Desert area, also saw good pre-monsoon rainfall, which is the reason why the heatwave has fully subsided in most parts of the nation.

In any case, dry conditions have prevailed over the last three days in Rajasthan, Haryana, and Punjab, as well as sections of Uttar Pradesh, which has led to an increase in the maximum temperature across the area. While several weather stations in the states have reported maximum temperatures that are close to 40 degrees Celsius, the conditions that are often associated with heatwaves are not present.

Heavy rains and localised floods have occurred in several regions of Kashmir as a result of a powerful western disturbance and moisture that has been driven inland from the Arabian Sea.

On June 22, Batote had a rainfall total of 121.4 millimetres over the course of one day. This is the largest amount of rainfall ever recorded on a single day during the month of June, surpassing the previous mark of 121.0 millimetres, which was set on June 25th, 2015.

The city of Srinagar experienced a cold similar to that of winter as a result of the excessive rainfall, and it recorded the lowest maximum temperature of June (at least since 1980).

On June 21, 2022, the highest temperature in Srinagar was 15.0 degrees Celsius, which is 14.2 degrees Celsius lower than typical. In Srinagar, the temperature reached a high of 15.2 degrees Fahrenheit on June 4, 2015, and 16.0 degrees Fahrenheit on June 13, 1994.

Along with the rains, a brisk wind from the northwest has pushed sections of the plains of northwestern India down from the hills in a pattern similar to winter. On June 22nd, the lowest temperature at Churu, which is located in Rajasthan, was 18.8 degrees Celsius. At least over the course of the last ten years, tonight’s low temperature marks the coldest June night on record. On June 10, 1974, a temperature of 17.7 degrees Celsius was recorded, which stands as the all-time high.

According to the Indian Meteorological Department, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through the following locations: Porbandar, Baroda, Shivpuri, Rewa, Churk, and Latitude 22 degrees North and Longitude 60 degrees East. In the past two days, there has been a standstill in the progression of the monsoon towards the northwestern part of India.

According to the statistics provided by the IMD, the following is a rundown of the total monsoon seasonal rainfall that have fallen in India between the dates of June 1 and June 25:

• The entire country of India had a total rainfall of 120.8 millimetres, compared to the average of 126.9 millimetres; this is a divergence from normal of -5 percent.

• Actual rainfall on the Southern Peninsula was 113.5 millimetres, compared to the average of 131.7 millimetres; this is a -14% deviation from normal.

• East and North East India: Actual 327.3mm compared to the average of 260.5mm, representing a 26% deviation from normal.

• The actual rainfall in North West India was 52.4 millimetres, compared to the average of 55.3 millimetres; this is a 5% divergence from normal.

• Actual rainfall in Central India was 89.6 millimetres, compared to an average of 126.2 millimetres; this is a deviation of 29% from normal.

The general performance of the monsoon rains has improved this week, as the rainfall departure across India has decreased to -5 percent from -8 percent since last Saturday.

The following is the All India Weather Forecast until July 2nd:

Northeastern India

Synopsis of the Weather:

• Dry North-West Winds Across the Entire Region of Northern India Until June 27

• Moist Easterlies from the 27th of June and Onward

• Beginning on June 28, the monsoon axis and trough will begin moving into northern India.

Under the influence of dry Northwest winds, it is quite possible that the majority of Punjab, Haryana, the National Capital Region of Delhi, Rajasthan, Western Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu Kashmir will have weather conditions that are dry till the 27th of May.

After the 28th of June, the flow of the monsoon, also known as winds blowing in an easterly direction, and the movement of the monsoonal trough will begin to migrate toward the northwestern part of India.

From the 27th to the 29th of June, the beginning of the monsoon season will bring scattered to moderately widespread rain to Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. This will mark the beginning of the rainy season in the region.

Rains travelling from East to West are expected to hit the Delhi National Capital Region (NCR), Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and portions of East Rajasthan between the 29th of June and the 2nd of July. It is appropriate to announce the beginning of the monsoon season in this location at this time since the criteria appear adequate for monsoon acceleration. In the meanwhile, it appears like the intensity of the rain is going to be rather low when it first starts.

In general, the commencement of the monsoon season in North India will occur on schedule, although it is highly unlikely to be particularly robust and may not ramp up until July. The skyrocketing temperatures will eventually drop back down to the mid-30s, and there will also be a big drop in the lowest temperatures. The afternoons will be muggy and uncomfortably hot.

Amounts of precipitation that are forecast to fall between now and July 2:

• Uttarakhand — 70mm • Uttar Pradesh — 60mm • Himachal Pradesh — 50mm • Delhi NCR — 40mm • Haryana — 40mm • Rajasthan — 20mm • Punjab — 20mm

Central India

Synopsis of the Weather:

• The formation of an inland low-pressure region in the middle of India

The regions of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and East Central Madhya Pradesh have been impacted by the monsoon. Some areas of Madhya Pradesh and the vast majority of Gujarat have not yet been hit by the first monsoon rainfall yet this season.

According to the most recent analysis, a cyclonic circulation is currently over Jharkhand, and it is expected to remain stationary for the next two days. After that, it is possible that it will start moving westward and transform into an inland low pressure area around the middle of the following week.

It is anticipated that the monsoon would expand into further regions of North Madhya Pradesh the next week under the influence of the following meteorological system. There is a chance that the monsoon rains will reach East Gujarat by the next weekend in some areas.

Under the influence of a low-pressure area, the majority of the states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, and Madhya Maharashtra are projected to have strong monsoon rainfall. This may encourage the planting of paddy crops in the region known as the rice bowl of the country. Because of the influence of the pull, the off-shore trough will get stronger in the North Konkan region. It is anticipated that the rains will get heavier in Mumbai and the area of the Ghat that is next to it. During the course of the following week, we will see periods of widespread mild to moderate rainfall coupled with isolated heavy showers.

Amounts of precipitation that are forecast to fall between now and July 2:

• Maharashtra — 110mm • Chhattisgarh — 90mm • Madhya Pradesh — 70mm • Gujarat — 40mm

India’s Eastern Region

Synopsis of the Weather:

• The eastern arm of the monsoon trough may be found across the sub-Himalayan foothills.

• Humidity originating from the Bay of Bengal, which feeds south-westerly winds.

The relentless over the North East India is expected to continue over the course of the following week as the weather conditions appear to be favourable. Rainfall ranging from light to moderate is forecast for the majority of the states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Sikkim, Nagaland, Tripura, Manipur, and Mizoram.

It is possible that some areas of Sikkim, Meghalaya, and sub-Himalayan west Bengal may receive heavy to extremely heavy rainfall till the 28th of June, and then the rainfall will begin to lessen. The following week should see a decrease in the number of instances of exceptionally heavy rainfall.

As of the 28th of June, the monsoon axis will begin moving south, which will result in an increase in rainfall throughout the states of West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha. From the 28th of June until the 2nd of July, the previously muted monsoonal conditions in East India will become active.

Amounts of precipitation that are forecast to fall between now and July 2:

• North East India: 140 millimetres • Bihar: 90 millimetres • Jharkhand: 80 millimetres • West Bengal: 80 millimetres • Odisha: 60 millimetres

South of India.

Synopsis of the Weather:

• Increasing the depth of the offshore trough along the western coast of the Peninsula

• Circulation of cyclones near the North Andhra Pradesh region

Because to the deepening of the off-shore trough along the western coast of India, the majority of the coastlines of Goa, Karnataka, and Kerala, as well as the Western Ghats, are expected to suffer a very rainy week in the days to come. As a result of the positive anomaly that is predicted by the weather models for the following week, the area is expected to be hit by multiple days of significant precipitation.

The interior convective rains decrease significantly once the monsoon activates over the West coast. This is a proven fact in the Southern Peninsula, and as a result, major Bangalore rains will be largely absent for most days in the next week except for the overcast and micro drizzles that might remain.

It is anticipated that the rains in Chennai, which have been highly active over the course of the last week, would drastically lessen over the course of the following week.

As a result of the existence of cyclonic circulation over North Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, which will aid the region draw monsoon rains over the course of the week, plenty of moderate rains will be noticed in various parts of the states during the course of the next week.

Amounts of precipitation that are forecast to fall between now and July 2:

• Goa — 190mm • Karnataka — 140mm • Kerala — 110mm • Andhra Pradesh — 80mm • Telangana — 70mm • Tamil Nadu — 20mm

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