The equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the majority of the Pacific Ocean have been below normal for the past four weeks. Temperatures at the top of the water that were below normal continued all the way down to a depth of around one hundred metres or more in the central and equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean. The western and central Pacific Ocean continue to exhibit temperatures that are above normal at depths deeper than this one.
Anomalies in the low-level easterly winds predominated in the east-central portion of the equatorial Pacific. The linked ocean-atmosphere system continues to show signs of La Nina overall.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Nino 3.4 region have been steadily falling over the past four weeks. ENSO may be monitored, evaluated, and forecasted primarily through the use of the average sea surface temperature (SST) in the Nino 3.4 zone, which also serves as the ONI (Oceanic Nino Index). Nino 1+2 (which includes the coast of South America) and Nino 4 have a large temperature difference between them ( equatorial west-central Pacific Ocean). The SSTs in all four zones are lower than the threshold of -0.5 degrees Celsius across the board.
The advise that was issued by La Nina is currently quite popular. When conditions consistent with El Nino or La Nina have been seen and it is anticipated that they will persist, NCEP/NOAA issues this alert.
IOD: The temperature of the Indian Ocean Dipole has fallen below 0 degrees Celsius since May 16th, 2020. On May 23rd, the temperature reached a low of -0.55 degrees Celsius, and on June 6th, it reached a high of -0.3 degrees Celsius. The latest weekly value as of June 19 was -0.49 degrees Celsius, which is lower than the cutoff point of -0.4 degrees Celsius. The majority of models suggest that the -ve value is going to grow, and a -ve IOD is quite close to being the next logical step after that. A negative IOD does not bode well for the monsoon activity that is taking on over the Indian subcontinent. It is inevitable that it will dampen the outbursts of the monsoon, although this effect is seen most strongly during the core monsoon months of July and August.
MJO: Madden There is a good chance that the amplitude of the Julian Oscillation will increase throughout the Western Hemisphere. In the past, it had weakened during the course of the preceding week, which was both expected and projected. Nevertheless, the phase of a powerful MJO will not last for very long. Its brief passage over the Indian Ocean during phases 2 and 3 is predicted to have a positive impact on the activity of the monsoon. There is a chance that a monsoon circulation would develop, which would result in an increase in the intensity of monsoon rainfall in the central sections of the country. It is anticipated that the monsoon current would progress through northern regions during the latter days of June or the first few days of July when it is under its effect.
MJO: Madden There is a good chance that the amplitude of the Julian Oscillation will increase throughout the Western Hemisphere. In the past, it had weakened during the course of the preceding week, which was both expected and projected. Nevertheless, the phase of a powerful MJO will not last for very long. Its brief passage over the Indian Ocean during phases 2 and 3 is predicted to have a positive impact on the activity of the monsoon. There is a chance that a monsoon circulation would develop, which would result in an increase in the intensity of monsoon rainfall in the central sections of the country. It is anticipated that the monsoon current would progress through northern regions during the latter days of June or the first few days of July when it is under its effect.